The centerpiece of our 2025 global economic outlook is a U.S. growth acceleration that leads the world economy, which we believe will grow more slowly. The Wall Street term is a "soft landing", in which the US economy regains momentum after a growth slowdown. To earn its name, the soft landing must feature catch-up spending so that lagging manufacturing and other segments catch up to services, which have been much stronger. But in that catch-up, and in likely new tariffs and tighter immigration, we expect a modest inflation uptick by year-end.